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Market size (TAM / SAM / SOM)

Is the market big enough — bottom-up, not wishful thinking?

How it works

TAM = all possible customers × yearly price.
SAM = the part you can actually reach.
SOM = the share you can realistically win in a few years. Investors trust bottom-up maths over '1% of a huge market'.

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TAM / year

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SAM / year

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SOM / year

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Monopoly vs competition

The best businesses avoid crowded fights by dominating a small market nobody else serves well.

Crossing the chasm

Early fans love new things; the mainstream wants proven solutions. There's a gap between them.

Positioning

Positioning is making it obvious who your product is for and why it's the best choice for them.

[1]
Zero to One — Peter Thiel with Blake Masters (2014)
Official page Get the book
[2]
Crossing the Chasm — Geoffrey A. Moore (1991)
Official page Get the book